Will home prices rise or fall in the coming months? Without wanting to sound as if I’m giving you a politician’s answer, that really does depend.
Study the table above. As you can see, the market was severely under supplied in January. At the end of January 2020, there were 2839 homes for sale on the Edmonton MLS® System. This year there was only 2093, a deficit of around 26%.
There has been a deficit of supply all year, although the deficit has been reducing as the year has progressed. At the end of September 2021, this year’s supply matched last year’s supply and exceeded it by 5 units.
So, what happens next?
At this time of the year, unmotivated home sellers take their listings off the market and I expect supply will decline. At least that’s been my experience over the 20 years I have been following this market.
However, demand will also decline, that is apart from the super motivated buyers that want to be in a new home by Christmas.
My guess is that we will see prices stabilize for the next 3 to 6 months and the heady increases home sellers have enjoyed for the first part of the year will moderate. That said, look at October values so far in the table below. They are above September. During the last 3 to 4 months of the year its quite normal to see values spike for a second time after the summer price highs, as buyers compete for homes with immediate possession and as they prepare to settle for the Christmas season.
Here’s an overview of prices at month end for 2021 so far.
Should you have any questions about the price of your home, please let me know. I’m always glad to help.
About the author:
You can read more about the author of this blog by clicking this link - Stuart Neal, Broker, REALTOR® & Team Lead.
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